Ohio Senate
Updated
Apr 21, 8:45 AM PDT
Democratic win 50%
Democratic win
Republican win 50%
Republican win
Likely range
R+3 to D+3
Key factors
Brown crossover lane · Husted incumbency · Late undecideds
Forecasts
Choose a race and drill into the full simulated range.
Start from the race list, then open a dedicated forecast page for the contest you want to inspect in detail. The board spans Senate, House, and Governor battlegrounds from the same surface.
Forecasts are ordered by most recent update so the newest movement stays at the top of the board.
NJ-11 House
Updated
Apr 16, 8:15 AM PDT
Mejia 67%
Mejia
Joe Hathaway 33%
Joe Hathaway
Likely range
D+24 to D+38
Key factors
Mejia result · District baseline · Sherrill carryover
Michigan Governor
Updated
Apr 2, 9:20 AM PDT
Democratic win 51%
Democratic win
Republican win 49%
Republican win
Likely range
R+3 to D+4
Key factors
Duggan effect · Benson vs. James · Open-seat volatility
Arizona Governor
Updated
Apr 2, 8:10 AM PDT
Democratic win 52%
Democratic win
Republican win 48%
Republican win
Likely range
R+3 to D+5
Key factors
Biggs risk · Phoenix suburbs · Swing-voter fit
NE-2 House
Updated
Apr 1, 6:40 PM PDT
Democratic win 56%
Democratic win
Republican win 44%
Republican win
Likely range
D+1 to D+8
Key factors
Bacon retirement · Omaha base · Democratic midterm lane
Michigan Senate
Updated
Apr 1, 2:30 PM PDT
Democratic win 53%
Democratic win
Republican win 47%
Republican win
Likely range
R+1 to D+5
Key factors
Nominee quality · Detroit turnout · Suburban reset
New Hampshire Senate
Updated
Mar 31, 5:20 PM PDT
Democratic win 56%
Democratic win
Republican win 44%
Republican win
Likely range
D+1 to D+8
Key factors
Pappas profile · GOP nominee · Independent vote