NJ-11 House
Updated
Apr 16, 8:15 AM PDT
Mejia 67%
Mejia
Joe Hathaway 33%
Joe Hathaway
Likely range
D+24 to D+38
Key factors
Mejia result · District baseline · Sherrill carryover
Election Forecasting, Rethought
Simulating theElectorate
TwinPolls creates election forecasts using digital twins of the electorate, grounded in polling and live social signals.
Grounded in the Race
Clarity through the noise.
Validated on 2024 results
Tested against live election outcomes
343 million modeled Americans
Synthetic populations representing every household in the US
Updated as races move
Grounded in polling, social signals, and market movement
Built by researchers and engineers
With backgrounds from UW, Harvey Mudd, and IIT
01How It Works
The Synthetic Electorate
TwinPolls starts by building digital voter twins from sourced demographic, political, and behavioral data. Together, those agents form a living model of the electorate that can update, shift, and respond as the race changes.
The electorate becomes a system, not a single number.
Agent-based electorateLiving model
02How It Works
Apply Race Pressure
TwinPolls layers in the forces shaping the race: national mood, candidate fit, local issues, turnout shifts, and late breaks. Because blocs respond differently, the model moves the electorate unevenly instead of assuming one uniform swing.
Not every bloc moves the same way.
Uneven pressureBloc-specific response
03How It Works
Model Likely Scenarios
TwinPolls evaluates the race across combinations of turnout, persuasion, and coalition behavior. Some scenarios leave the race stable. Others show how turnout, late movement, or shifts in key blocs could narrow the margin or change the read.
A forecast should reflect more than one path.
Scenario paths1,200+ runs
04How It Works
The Public Read
TwinPolls compresses the scenario field into a forecast: win odds, margin range, key drivers, and the conditions that could still move the race. It then recalibrates against real results to keep the model grounded.
A public forecast that clarifies uncertainty.
Public readOdds, range, and drivers
Latest Forecast Updates
What changed, and why it mattered
Apr 21Ohio Senate
Ohio moves onto the toss-up line as the polling average flattens
The April 21 refresh treats Ohio as effectively even: DDHQ’s current average is Brown 46.8% to Husted 46.7%, even after a newer April BGSU poll nudged the latest public read back toward Husted.
Apr 16NJ-11
Mejia’s 66.6% result in NJ-11 hardens the Democratic read
This result strengthens the read that NJ-11 starts from firmer Democratic ground than the earlier field suggested.
Apr 2Michigan Governor
Michigan’s three-way dynamic keeps the governor race volatile
The latest refresh treats the three-way shape as a live structural feature, not a temporary polling quirk.
A Living Forecast
TwinPolls builds digital twins of the electorate, stress-tests them under real race conditions, and updates the public read as the race moves.